In mid-March I was pleased to join an excellent and incredibly timely session at Perry World House – the University of Pennsylvania’s hub for global policy engagement.

The all-day session brought together leaders from multiple disciplines on the theme of Feeding a Climate-Changed World.  In my mind, this remains one of the most critical global themes that we should all be talking about, and acting on, with the highest urgency possible.

The session effectively reinforced the many challenges and opportunities involved in feeding a rising population within planetary boundaries, exploring many key themes under the umbrella of transformation to sustainable food systems – a focal point of the UN’s food security work and a critical theme of the upcoming COP30 in Brazil.

The Perry World House team compiled an excellent four-part agenda for the day, beginning with a panel focused on “unpacking the challenge” of how climate change impacts global food security and the opportunities, challenges, and risks involved in creating a resilient, equitable and sustainable food system.  Second, we addressed the essential need to do more with less, exploring innovations in the agricultural and foodservice sectors (along with associated barriers and accelerants) and their role in mitigating the effects of unsustainable food production and consumption.  Third, we explored the linkage between three megatrends (climate change, urbanization, and population growth) and food security, specifically addressing how these megatrends are impacting dietary guidelines and related health outcomes.  Last, we covered the seemingly overwhelming theme of recent months – the geopolitics of food security and climate change – including how tensions and competition are impacting food security and how common ground might be found to advance policy solutions.

Panelists submitted excellent briefs which anchored rich discussions in each segment, prompting numerous insights and takeaways, which, as Perry World House Deputy Director Michael Weisberg noted, can be carried forward to intersessional climate negotiations, the upcoming Global Conference of the Sustainable Food Systems Programme, Climate Week, and COP30 – where food systems transformation will be an integral theme.

Andew Hoffman, Dean of the School of Veterinary Medicine at Penn, set the stage for the day’s discussion with an overview drawing on many key data points, discussing the regional sources of global cereals production, the importance of smallholder farmers (who produce one-third of the world’s food supply), and the share of the global population that is 1) experiencing severe food insecurity, 2) undernourished, and 3) unable to afford a healthy diet – reminding us that all of these themes are linked.  Hoffman also touched on cattle productivity, noting that the productivity of cattle in less developed regions is tied to the lower health of the animals, along with the negative impact of climate change on future crop yields – an issue at the heart of the challenge of sustainably feeding an expected population of ten billion by 2050.

Hoffman also discussed the impact of food production on the environment, citing the sharp link between declining land productivity and population (which we can expect will translate to increased scarcity of cropland production) while also covering the amount of global greenhouse gas emissions attributed to food production. 

Encouragingly, he added that we can adapt and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from food systems without negatively impacting food security (and I would add, we must), but at the same time we must address the geopolitical conditions that threaten the factors of food production.

Last, he introduced Penn Vet’s Center for Stewardship Agriculture and Food Security, whose mission (to foster the responsible use of resources – including air, water, land, animals and people – entrusted to farmers to produce sustainable and nutritious food while successfully meeting the demands of feeding the world’s burgeoning population) is completely aligned with the challenge of feeding 10 billion global citizens by 2050 within planetary boundaries.

Unpacking the Climate/Food Security Challenge

The day’s first panel began with a key point: the world currently produces more than enough food to feed the global population, but the distribution of that food is inadequate (a frustrating point that we have all heard for decades).  And with over 700 million citizens experiencing food insecurity and billions unable to afford a healthy diet, solutions to overcome this basic disconnect are essential.  Greg Puley of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA) pointed to the billions of dollars recently spent on humanitarian food relief, noting that the organization is well aware that they are not a solution to global hunger but a stopgap– and that longer term solutions are needed.

Many current and pressing challenges were cited – fires and floods driven by climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, excessive waste, land degradation, and the vulnerability of smallholder farmers.  Rebecca Middleton, Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer for the World Food Program USA, discussed several regions most at risk of food insecurity today, citing specific drivers including conflict, high food costs, and climate change, while also discussing challenges of funding (expected budget cuts) and disruption to resilience efforts due to climate-driven droughts.    

Ruth Hill of IFPRI cited weather risks to food production as well as the decline in the potential of existing technology for increased agricultural productivity, noting that new technologies and transport efficiencies (with less GHG impact) were needed.  And Khadeeja Nasseem, former Maldives’ Minister of State for Climate Change, Environment, and Energy, brought a critical perspective from that nation and the Small Island Developing States (SIDS), citing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (including extreme weather events, flooding and storm surges), water scarcity, and soil salinization.  Naseem also highlighted the nation’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks (noting that over 90% of its food supply is imported) while also pointing to an equity dynamic (stating that the best food goes to tourists in the hotel sector given the importance of tourism to the economy).  Further, she pointed to the sad reality of the emergence of the weaponization of food and the associated threat to vulnerable nations like the Maldives.

These discussions, highlighting specific challenges and associated opportunities, laid a perfect foundation for the next segment focused on doing more with less (i.e. sustainable intensification).

The Need to Do More with Less

In the second panel, I drew on my written Policy Brief with the theme of harnessing the untapped multiplier for food systems transformation — food waste reduction.

I led with the idea that when it comes to the food system, the optimal way to do more with less starts with wasting less food in the first place.  The World Resources Institute (WRI) addressed this point in its landmark 2019 report, Creating a Sustainable Food Future, in which five action courses were identified to close three critical gaps (food gap, land gap, and emissions gap) in the effort to feed the expanded global population by 2050 without destroying the planet.  Course one called for reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, starting with reducing food loss and waste.

As discussed in my Brief, food waste has been called the world’s dumbest problem, and that’s not far off.  Food is central and critical in our lives, and transformation of the global food system is essential if we are to equitably provide sufficient nutrition for all global citizens by 2050 within planetary boundaries (i.e. sustainably). 

Currently, 30-40% of food production is lost or wasted annually while 750 million are hungry and billions suffer from micronutrient deficiencies.  This disconnect is a stark moral and ethical failure.

Food waste is a $1 trillion financial problem, as well as an environmental disaster, accounting for 8-10% of global greenhouse gas emissions while consuming scarce water supplies (and other resource inputs), degrading soils, accelerating deforestation, biodiversity loss, plastic pollution, and more.

I added that the emissions linkage is critical, as the World Meteorological Organization noted that 2024 was the warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above the pre-industrial level, breaching the 1.5°C level established in the Paris Agreement.

Further, in a recent paper in Science, Clark et al. noted that “even if all non–food system GHG emissions were immediately stopped and were net zero from 2020 to 2100, emissions from the food system alone would likely exceed the 1.5°C emissions limit between 2051 and 2063.”  Thus, in order to solve the climate crisis, we need to solve food waste.

And while the world has a goal to reduce global food waste, Target 12.3 of the Sustainable Development Goals, which calls for halving per capita food waste at the residential and consumer levels by 2030 and reducing food losses along production and supply chains – progress is far off track.  In fact, in its 2024 Food Loss and Waste Progress Report, the Champions 12.3 group implored all stakeholders to simply identify at least one thing that can be done to address a food loss and waste hotspot – and then just do it – adding that “the only chance we have to realize SDG 12.3’s enormous promise is if we all do something and we do it now.”

The exasperated tone of the Report reflects the harsh reality that progress on food waste reduction has been far too slow, and that we need to move much faster.

I noted that the challenge of sustainably feeding the planet is the ultimate case of needing to do more with less, and that halving global food waste is essential to meeting that challenge.

In terms of assessing why we lose and waste so much of our food, and what we can do about it, I focused on four major themes:  1) Properly valuing our food resources, 2) Awareness-raising and educational efforts to change food culture, 3) Embracing innovation for food waste reduction with prioritization on prevention (i.e. source reduction), and 4) Leadership (scaling food waste reduction requires urgency, and authentic leadership is needed to meet the gravity of the challenge).

In addition to expanding on these themes, I noted that there is a larger element of political will that is needed to advance food waste reduction.  The disconnect between the enormity of global food waste and the high level of global hunger is stark, and immoral, and the environmental consequences of food waste are severe.  Further, substantially reducing food loss and waste frees an immense amount of financial and human resources to address the root causes of poverty and food security – and is an opportunity not to be missed.

Also in this segment, Dr. Zhengxia Dou of Penn Vet discussed the significant potential in upcycling existing food waste streams into alternative feed for livestock, drawing on her Policy Brief entitled “Alternative feed for livestock: Producing more animal protein with less climate and resource impact.”  She provided examples of alternative feed and discussed how these ingredients can be substituted for portions of conventional feedstocks in livestock diets, yielding resource savings and emissions reduction.  And she described studies at Penn Vet in which citrus waste collected from local sources was added to the diet of lactating cows with positive results: no decline in milk yield while achieving financial savings (reduced feed cost) and environmental savings from the displacement of conventional feed.  These studies are an excellent indicator of how the circular nature of upcycling supports the transition to sustainable food systems.    

Dr. Andrew Smith (Chief Scientific Officer at the Rodale Institute on Regenerative Agriculture) drew on his Policy Brief, Mitigating emissions and adapting to climate change through regenerative organic agriculture, in which he discussed the carbon footprint of both conventional and diversified organic farming systems and the potential in alternative organic fertility sources (livestock manure, leguminous green manures, and food waste processed through anaerobic digestion systems) to achieve fossil fuel-free farming.  Smith noted that these products “could be a viable solution to offset greenhouse gas emissions from the manufacture and application of fertilizers while at the same time increasing crop yields.”

Key Megatrends and Nutrition

Our third panel focused on the key megatrends of climate change, urbanization, and population growth and their combined effect on nutritional health and food security.  These megatrends are central to the challenge of feeding ten billion global citizens sustainably, and equitably, by 2050.

Dr. Gina Kennedy (Principal Scientist, Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT) spoke on the importance of food biodiversity, noting that 50% of the world’s dietary energy currently comes from just three crops (rice, wheat, and maize), while 60-70% of calories in the U.S. come from ultra-processed foods.  She added that urbanization helps accelerate the consumption of ultra-processed foods, which carries the additional burden of packaging waste to landfill or incineration.

In her Policy Brief, Kennedy noted that one-third of the global population is unable to afford a healthy diet, and that much of this nutritional burden stems from insufficient intakes of nutrient-dense healthy food items and overconsumption of harmful dietary factors in ultra-processed foods.  She added that “One of our greatest opportunities to address climate change, sustainable food production and consumption and to improve diets and nutrition is to elevate and value the role of edible biodiversity in food systems.”  Further, she stated that the continuation of a business-as-usual approach to the global shift towards homogeneous diets “will lead to further environmental degradation, food insecurity and diet-related diseases.”  Her points are spot on.

Lindsey Smith Taillie (Associate Chair, Department of Nutrition, UNC) discussed the expansion of ultra-processed foods and sugary drinks around the globe and the associated rapid increase in diet-related illness, along the environmental impact of these foods (including high water usage and plastic pollution).  In terms of regional efforts on dietary guidelines, she provided several leadership examples from the Latin America region, noting that Mexico was the first country to tax sugary drinks, and that by 2025 Colombia will have the strongest policy regarding sugary drinks and ultra-processed foods.  She also pointed to Brazil as the world leader in school food programs, with a requirement that 75% of funds must be used on fresh, healthy foods and that 30% of procurement funds must go to local farms.  In addition, she cited Chile’s effort to limit exposure of children to food marketing advertisements by eliminating such Ads in daytime hours.

Jose Luis Chicoma (Program Chair, The Future of Food: Power and Biodiversity at THE NEW INSTITUTE) spoke of the power asymmetries that must be considered in efforts to drive food system transformation.  As an example, he cited the rise of quinoa as a global superfood, noting that while the explosion in exports initially raised incomes for Andean farmers, it led to unintended consequences – such as 1) intensive monocropping of quinoa which degraded the sustainability of local farming systems and 2) a decline in local consumption, with local citizens consuming more processed food alternatives.   

Chicoma drew from his Policy Brief (Rethinking Food Affordability: Beyond Cheap Calories) which began with the powerful statement that “The world does not need more cheap calories.”  In it, he challenged the type of food crops that are being produced) – noting that while the world produces enough calories to feed ten billion people, nearly three billion cannot afford a healthy diet, and the production of healthy foods remains insufficient.

He also challenged the traditional emphasis on increasing agricultural productivity to feed an increasing global population as being outdated, noting that “What is truly needed is a fundamental shift in our food systems to prioritize the production, equitable distribution, and affordability of nutritious foods.”

Chicoma pointed to the extractive nature of global food commodity chains, noting that they fail to address the root causes of food security and environmental degradation – along with the critical point that the global conversation on the urgent need to produce affordable, sustainable, and healthy diets must go beyond the Global North to include the most vulnerable around the world.  He concluded with four recommended solutions to drive the transition to affordable access to healthy and sustainable diets, detailing opportunities in agroecology, fisheries, school meal programs, and traditional, informal food markets.

The Geopolitical Impact

Fittingly, the day concluded with a session focused on the geopolitics of food security and climate change.  Topics included the weaponization of food, efforts among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to reduce dependence on Western food sources, the ramifications of recent funding cuts to U.S. food programs, the importance of the Amazon (including the level of deforestation and the opportunity to bring it back into sustainable production), and more.

Dr. Scott Moore (Director of China Programs and Strategic Programs at the University of Pennsylvania) drew on his Policy Brief (The Climate-Food-Geopolitics Nexus), in which he discussed the emerging significance of geopolitical threats (such as Russia’s war on Ukraine) to the challenge of providing sufficient healthy food to the world’s population in a sustainable manner.  

Moore cited the resurgence of great power rivalry and how it is leading countries (such as China) to prioritize self-sufficiency in major crops at great financial cost.  He also pointed to the threat from fragmentation of the global economic and trade system in a world of tariffs and protectionism, reminding us that the integration of food markets in the postwar era has reduced the incidence of famine while providing a buffer against climate-driven shocks to production around the world.  As an example, he noted that the shipping of virtual water (water embedded in food products) has prevented agricultural crises in recent years of regional droughts, but a world of trade barriers threatens that positive buffer effect and increases the risks of food insecurity due to climate (and other) shocks.

Moving Forward with Purpose

This one-day event came at a perfect time given the turbulent environment the world is currently facing specific to climate change, food security, biodiversity loss, inflamed geopolitical tensions, and the concerning decline in support for the most vulnerable citizens of the world.

The discussions in each of the four segments were rich, anchored by excellent Policy Briefs focused on the key challenges and opportunities related to successfully (and sustainably) feeding a climate-changed world.

Further, the event served as the perfect primer for COP30, highlighting the critical linkage between climate change, food security, biodiversity, and geopolitics, and augmenting much of the ongoing food systems transformation work around the globe which will be covered extensively in Brazil.

The action call was clear.  We know the challenges of achieving food security within planetary boundaries by 2050, and we know of many opportunities to get there – but the world must accelerate collaborative action on holistic solutions to make it happen.

The challenge of providing sufficient nutritious, affordable food for all ten billion citizens by 2050 in a sustainable manner is arguably the most important global challenge we face.

It is a challenge that can be me if the political will can be found among nations.

And while the geopolitics of the moment look dire, this is the exact conversation we should be having to achieve not only food security, but global security.

____

Thanks to Lauren Anderson and Michael Weisberg for curating and moderating such an excellent and inspiring session.